World agriculture: towards
2015/2030
An FAO perspective, Elen
Bruinsma, editor., Earthscan Pubs 2003
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Contents
Foreword by the Director-General
of FAO iii
Explanatory notes xi
Contributors to the book xii
Chapter 1
Introduction and overview
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Overview 3
Chapter 2
Prospects for food and nutrition
2.1 The broad picture: historical
developments and present situation 29
2.2 The outlook for food and nutrition to 2015 and 2030 34
2.3 Structural changes in the commodity composition of food consumption
50
2.4 Concluding remarks 54
Chapter 3
Prospects for aggregate agriculture and major commodity groups
3.1 Aggregate agriculture: historical
trends and prospects 57
3.2 Cereals 64
3.3 Livestock commodities 85
3.4 Oilcrops, vegetable oils and products 98
3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains 107
3.6 Main export commodities of the developing countries 111
Chapter 4 Crop
production and natural resource use
4.1 Introduction 124
4.2 Sources of growth in crop production 124
4.3 Agricultural land 127
4.4 Irrigation and water use 137
4.5 Land-yield combinations for major crops 142
4.6 Input use 148
Chapter 5
Livestock production
5.1 Introduction 158
5.2 Consumption of livestock products 159
5.3 Production 160
5.4 Major perspective issues and possible policy responses 166
5.5 Concluding remarks 175
Chapter 6
Forestry
6.1 Introduction 177
6.2 The present state of forests 178
6.3 Forces shaping forestry and areas of change 179
6.4 Probable changes up to 2015 and 2030 184
6.5 Major perspective issues in world forestry 189
6.6 Where is forestry heading? 192
Chapter 7
Fisheries
7.1 Introduction 195
7.2 World fisheries at the end of the 1990s 195
7.3 Plausible developments in world fisheries 202
7.4 Concluding remarks 210
Chapter 8
Agriculture in poverty alleviation and economic development
8.1 Introduction 212
8.2 Internationally agreed poverty reduction targets 212
8.3 The main international strategies for poverty reduction: a summary
assessment 217
8.4 Micro and macro evidence on the impact of undernourishment 221
8.5 Agricultural and rural non-farm growth 226
Chapter 9
Agricultural trade, trade policies and the global food system
9.1 Introduction 232
9.2 Long-term trends in the pattern of global agricultural trade 233
9.3 The trade policy environment for agriculture 241
9.4 Towards freer trade in agriculture: what is important from a
30-year perspective? 249
9.5 Beyond the traditional trade agenda: emerging long-term trade
policy issues 255
9.6 Summary and conclusions 262
Chapter 10
Globalization in food and agriculture
10.1 Globalization as an ongoing
process 265
10.2 The main features of globalization and the correlates of success
269
10.3 Some options to integrate developing countries better 288
10.4 Concluding remarks 294
Chapter 11
Selected issues in agricultural technology
11.1 The scope for yield increases 297
11.2 Technologies in support of sustainable agriculture 303
11.3 Organic agriculture 308
11.4 Agricultural biotechnology 314
11.5 Directions for agricultural research 327
Chapter 12
Agriculture and the environment: changing pressures, solutions and
trade-offs
12.1 Introduction 331
12.2 Major trends and forces 332
12.3 Changing pressures on the environment 333
12.4 Current and emerging solutions 351
12.5 Physical and economic trade-offs 353
12.6 Concluding remarks 355
Chapter 13
Climate change and agriculture: physical and human dimensions
13.1 Introduction 357
13.2 Agriculture as a moderator of climate change 358
13.3 Climate change impacts on agriculture 361
13.4 Implications of climate change for food security 364
13.5 Technological and policy options 369
13.6 Conclusions 371
Appendixes
1. Countries and commodities 375
2. Summary methodology of the quantitative analysis and projections 378
3. Statistical tables 383
References 409
Acronyms 430