World Energy Assessment:
Energy and the challenge of sustainability
United Nations Development Programme
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
World Energy Council
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Contents

Foreword                      ...... i
Mark Malloch Brown, United Nations Development Programme
Nitin Desai, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Gerald Doucet, World Energy Council
Preface                      ....... iii
José Goldemberg, World Energy Assessment

Acknowledgements                ....... iv

Editorial board                    .....v

Establishing institutions              ..vii

World Energy Assessment Overview        ......1
Introduction                         2
Part I: Energy and major global issues                 ....4
Part II: Energy resources and technological options           ........12
Part III: Are sustainable futures possible?               ....18
Part IV: Where do we go from here?                 ..23

PART I. ENERGY AND MAJOR GLOBAL ISSUES

Chapter 1. An Introduction to Energy                      ......29
Hans-Holger Rogner (Germany) and Anca Popescu (Romania)
What is sustainable energy development?                               .... 31
Evolution of the energy system                                 ....... 31
Demand for energy services                                   ..... 32
Energy trade patterns and globalisation                               .... 34
Crude oil and oil products                                 ........ 34
Coal                                         .... 35
Natural gas                                     ......... 35
Energy prices and taxes                                   .......35
Energy investments                                     ....36
General features                                     .. 36
Capital flows                                     ........ 37

Chapter 2. Energy and Social Issues                      ....... 39
Amulya K.N. Reddy (India)
Towards a new approach to energy for human uses                           .... 41
Energy and poverty in developing countries                             ....... 43
Dimensions of poverty                                   .... 43
The energy-poverty nexus                                 ......... 44
The energy ladder and household decisions about fuel choice                       ...... 45
Energy strategies for alleviating poverty in developing countries                       .. 45
Energy and poverty in industrialised countries                             .. 46
Energy and women                                     ....47
Factors determining energy-women linkages                           ......... 47
Specific concerns and priority areas                               ... 49
Energy for improving the position of women                            .... 50
Energy and population                                   ........ 50
Demographic transitions                                  ....  50
Population momentum                                   .... 51
The energy-population nexus                                 ... 51
Rural energy consumption and population implications                         .. 52
Traditional biomass-based cooking and demographic indicators                      ....  53
Energy-population nexus at the global level                             . 53
Energy and urbanisation                                   ...... 54
Urbanisation and energy linkages                               ..... 54
Urbanisation and energy strategies                               ... 55
Energy to improve the urban environment                             .. 56
Energy and lifestyles                                     ...57
Energy use in the United States                                  57
Trends towards more energy use                               ........ 58
Conclusion                                       ....... 58

Chapter 3. Energy, the Environment, and Health                ...... 61
John P. Holdren (United States) and Kirk R. Smith (United States)
Household scale                                     ........ 65
Harvesting                                      ... . 66
Combustion                                     ......... 66
Estimated health effects                                   ... 69
Greenhouse gases                                     .... 69
Workplace scale                                     ........ 70
Biomass                                       ..... 70
Coal                                         .... 71
Oil and gas                                    ....    72
Hydropower and other renewables                               ..... 72
Nuclear danger                                     ... 72
Number of workers and quantitative health effects estimates                       ....... 73
Community scale                                     ....... 73
Fuel-derived air pollution in cities of industrialised countries                       ..... 74
Fuel-derived air pollution in cities of developing countries                          ... 76
Urban pollution control in the longer run                             ... 77
Hydroelectric dams                                   ........ 77
Nuclear power                                     ..... 80
Regional scale                                       ..... 80
Emissions and energy                                   .... 81
Future emissions                                     .... 81
Acid deposition                                     ..... 83
Tropospheric ozone                                   ......... 84
Suspended fine particles                                   . 85
Regional climate change                                  ....  86
Global scale: climate change from greenhouse gases                           .. 86
Consequences of greenhouse gas-induced climate change                         .. 89
Alternative energy futures and greenhouse gas emissions                         .. 91
International agreements to address global climate change                       ........ 94
Cross-scale impacts                                     ... 95
Environmental risk transition                                 . 95
Win-win strategies to link environmental improvements at different scales                   ..... 96
Assessment methods                                   ....... 98
Implications for the future                                   .101
Household scale                                     ..101
Workplace scale                                     . 101
Community scale                                   ........ 101
Regional scale                                     .... 101
Global scale                                     ....... 102
Cross-scale                                     ......... 104
Conclusion                                       .... 104

Chapter 4. Energy Security                          .........111
Hisham Khatib (Jordan)
New dimensions and challenges to energy security                           ... 113
Security of electric power supply                               ....... 114
Routes to enhanced energy security                               . 115
Energy adequacy                                     ..... 115
Crude oil                                       . 116
Natural gas                                     ....... 116
Coal                                       ......... 117
Nuclear energy                                     .. 117
Renewables                                     ........ 117
The resource outlook                                   .... 117
Supply security                                     ........ 118
Security of crude oil supply                                 .... 119
Security of natural gas supply                                  124
Security of coal supply                                   .. 126
Nuclear energy and energy security                                126
Energy intensity                                     . 127
The environment and energy security                               .... 128
Markets and energy security                                 ........ 128
The role of the state                                   ....... 129
Regional cooperation and the growing importance of regional electricity grids and network energies           ... 130
Conclusion                                       ..... 130

PART II. ENERGY RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS

Chapter 5. Energy Resources                        ........135
Hans-Holger Rogner (Germany)
Definitions and units                                      137
Oil reserves and resources                                    139
Ultimately recoverable resources—the static or geologists’ view                       . 139
Available resources—the dynamic or economists’ view                         ... 142
Reconciling the two views                                 ....... 143
Gas reserves and resources                                 ......... 144
Conventional gas                                   ......... 144
Unconventional gas                                   ..... 145
Coal reserves and resources                                 ........ 147
Current resources and reserves                               ........ 147
Additional resources                                   ..... 148
Summary of fossil resources                                 ... 148
Reserves and resources of fissile materials                             ..... 150
Uranium reserves                                   ........ 150
Uranium resources                                   ...... 151
Thorium reserves and resources                               ....... 152
Hydroelectric resources                                   .... 152
Theoretical potential                                   ..... 153
Technical potential                                   ....... 153
Economic potential                                   ...... 154
Major constraints to hydroelectricity expansion                           .... 155
Biomass resources                                     .. 156
Sources                                       .... 156
Perceptions and problems                                 ...... 157
Technical potential of biomass energy plantations                            157
Energy balances and biomass productivity                              160
Agricultural and forestry residues and municipal waste                         . 160
Environmental implications of biomass production                         ....... 161
Environmentally motivated responses to biomass production                       ... 162
Economics                                        162
Solar energy resources                                   ...... 162
Wind energy resources                                   ...... 163
Geothermal energy resources                                 ...... 165
Ocean energy resources                                   .... 165
Conclusion                                       .... 166

Chapter 6. Energy End-Use Efficiency                      .173
Eberhard Jochem (Germany)
Recent trends in energy intensity in countries and regions                         .. 175
OECD countries                                     .. 175
Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States                       .. 177
Developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America                              180
Potential benefits of technology transfer                                181
Transition economies                                   ... 182
Developing countries                                   ... 182
Types of potential for increased energy efficiency                           ..... 183
The economic potential of energy efficiency by region and sector                       . 184
Western Europe                                     .. 185
North America                                     ... 187
Japan and Southeast Asia                                 ....... 189
Eastern Europe                                     .. 190
Russia and other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States                   ....... 191
India                                       ....... 192
China                                       ....... 194
Latin America                                     .... 195
Africa                                       ....... 197
The economic potential of energy efficiency—a systemic perspective                     .... 198
Technical and theoretical potential for rational energy use after 2020                      199
Obstacles, market imperfections, and disincentives for efficient energy use                   ...... 200
General obstacles                                   ......... 200
Target group–specific and technology-specific obstacles                         ... 203
National and international policies to exploit the economic potential of energy efficiency in end-use sectors         ..... 205
General policy measures                                 ........ 206
Sector- and technology-specific policy measures                           .... 207
International policy measures                               ......... 211
Conclusion                                       .... 211

Chapter 7. Renewable Energy Technologies                  ..... 219
Wim C. Turkenburg (Netherlands)
Biomass energy                                     ....... 222
The potential of biomass energy                               ....... 223
Biomass energy conversion technologies                             .... 223
Environmental impacts of biomass energy systems                         ........ 225
Economics of biomass energy systems                             ........ 226
Implementation issues                                   . 227
Conclusion                                     ........ 230
Wind energy                                       .. 230
The potential of wind energy                                 .. 230
Development of installed wind power                             ......... 231
Technology developments                                 ....... 232
System aspects                                     ... 232
Environmental aspects                                    233
Economic aspects                                   ......... 234
Implementation issues                                   . 234
Conclusion                                     ........ 235
Photovoltaic solar energy                                   .. 235
Characteristics of the source                                 ... 236
The potential of photovoltaic solar energy                             ... 236
Photovoltaic market developments                               ... 237
Current status and future development of photovoltaic solar cells and modules                 ...... 237
System aspects                                     ... 238
Environmental aspects                                    239
Economic aspects                                   ......... 240
Implementation issues                                   . 241
Space-based solar energy                                 ....... 242
Conclusion                                     ........ 243
Solar thermal electricity                                   .... 243
The potential of solar thermal electricity                             ..... 243
Solar thermal electricity market developments                           ..... 243
Solar thermal electricity technologies                                244
Economic aspects                                   ......... 246
Environmental and social aspects                               ... 246
Conclusion                                     ........ 247
Low-temperature solar energy                                 .... 247
Low-temperature solar energy potential and market developments                     ..... 247
Low-temperature solar energy technologies and systems                         . 248
Implementation issues                                   . 250
Conclusion                                     ........ 251
Hydroelectricity                                     ....... 251
The potential of hydroelectricity                               ........ 251
Hydroelectric technology development                             ........ 251
System aspects                                     ... 253
Environmental and social impacts                               .. 254
Economic and financial aspects                               ...... 254
Conclusion                                     ........ 254
Geothermal energy                                     . 255
The potential of geothermal energy                               .. 255
Recent developments                                   ... 255
Potential market developments                               ........ 257
Environmental aspects                                    258
Conclusion                                     ........ 258
Marine energy technologies                                 ........ 258
The potential and technology of marine energy                           ... 258
Economic aspects                                   ........ 260
Environmental aspects                                    260
Implementation issues                                   . 261
Conclusion                                     ........ 261
System aspects                                     ........ 261
Trends in the energy sector                                 .... 261
Characteristics of renewable energy systems                           ......... 262
Electrical system design                                 ......... 262
Grid integration of intermittent renewables                           ......... 262
Intermittent renewables and energy storage                           ........ 262
Value of renewables                                   ..... 263
Conclusion                                     ........ 263
Policies and instruments                                   ... 264
Cost of competing conventional energy                             ...... 264
Financing and fiscal policy                                 ... 264
Regulation                                     ........ 265
Getting new technologies started                               ...... 265
Conclusion                                       ... 267

Chapter 8. Advanced Energy Supply Technologies                . 273
Robert H. Williams (United States)
Advanced fossil energy technologies                               ..... 275
Fossil fuel supply considerations as a context for fossil energy innovation                   .... 275
Setting goals for advanced fossil energy technologies                         ....... 276
Technologies and strategies for moving towards near-zero emissions                     ... 279
Other near-term advanced fossil energy technologies                         ...... 302
Conclusion                                     ........ 305
Advanced nuclear energy technologies                               . 306
Rationale for reconsidering the nuclear option                           .... 306
The need for advanced technologies                               . 307
Advanced nuclear generating options for the immediate future                        313
Nuclear energy for the long term                               .... 315
The outlook for addressing the challenges                             ... 317

PART III. ARE SUSTAINABLE FUTURES POSSIBLE?

Chapter 9. Energy Scenarios                          ... 333
Nebojsa Naki´cenovi´c (Austria)
What are scenarios and how are they used for energy assessments?                     ........ 335
Alternative development paths and how they are reflected in scenarios                      335
Energy scenarios for sustainable development                           ..... 336
Brief review of the literature on energy scenarios                           . 336
Three energy scenarios for the 21st century                             ... 337
Economic development and equity                               .. 340
Improvement of energy intensities                               ... 342
Primary energy requirements and supply                             . 344
Technological dynamics and structural change                           ... 348
The structure of final energy requirements                              348
Temporal and spatial scales of scenarios                             .... 351
The legacy of past generations                                  352
The role of policies                                   ....... 353
Implications of sustainable energy scenarios                             .. 353
RD&D trends and requirements and technological diffusion                       .... 353
Capital requirements and financing                             ......... 355
Technological diffusion                                    356
International energy trade and security                             .... 357
Environmental issues at the local and regional scales                         .... 358
Climate change: land use and other global issues                            360
Conclusion                                       ... 364

Chapter 10. Rural Energy in Developing Countries              ........ 367
José Goldemberg (Brazil)
Rungs on the energy ladder                                 ........ 369
Fuels in rural areas: climbing the energy ladder                           ....... 370
Improved cooking stoves                                 ........ 371
Kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas                             ........ 372
Biogas for cooking                                   ....... 373
Producer gas for cooking                                 ....... 373
Rural electrification                                      374
The centralised approach                                 ....... 374
The decentralised approach                                 .... 375
Leapfrogging to new rungs on the energy ladder                           ...... 379
The time horizon for technological options                             ... 379
Accelerating rural energy development                               . 380
Integrated rural development                                  380
Involving rural people (particularly women) in decision-making                     ...... 381
Strategies for expanding access to modern energy services                         . 381
Strategies to make modern energy services affordable                         ....... 382
Conclusion                                       ... 384
Annex. Case studies of crop-residue-derived modern energy carriers in China                    384

PART IV. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

Chapter 11. Energy and Economic Prosperity                  . 393
Dennis Anderson (United Kingdom)
Energy consumption and economic well-being                           ......... 395
The transition from traditional to modern energy sources                       ........ 396
The benefits of service extension                               ....... 397
Energy use forecasts and energy efficiency                             ..... 399
Ambiguities in the evidence and shortcomings in methods                       ........ 399
Energy efficiency as a beneficial stimulus to energy use                         . 400
Reconciling increased energy consumption and environmental protection                   ........ 400
Reducing local and regional pollution                             ...... 401
Mitigating global warming                                 ... 404
Liberalisation and globalisation                                 .. 408
Conclusion: economic perspectives on policy                             . 409

Chapter 12. Energy Policies for Sustainable Development          ........ 415
Michael Jefferson (United Kingdom)
Policy goals and challenges                                 ........ 418
The findings so far                                   ....... 418
Defining the goals of policy                                 .... 419
Responding to the challenge of widening access                           ... 420
Improving environmental acceptability                             ..... 422
Making markets work better                                 ....... 423
Internalising externalities                                 ...... 423
Phasing out subsidies to conventional energy                           ...... 424
Regulatory options for restructured energy sectors                         ......... 425
Raising energy efficiency                                 ....... 427
Mobilising investments in sustainable energy                             .. 430
Attracting private capital                                 ....... 431
Tapping other sources of funding                               ..... 432
Encouraging technological innovation for sustainable energy development                   ....... 433
Understanding the energy innovation chain                           ....... 434
The rationale for public policies in support of energy innovation                     ........ 435
Policy options for promoting technological innovation                         .... 437
Encouraging technological innovation in developing countries                       ...... 438
Opportunities for technological leadership                             .. 439
Supporting demonstration and diffusion                             ... 439
International industrial collaboration                             ....... 440
Towards a supportive policy framework                             ..... 440
Capacity and institution building                               ... 440
Moving towards more effective cooperation                             .... 441
Cooperative efforts to ensure supply security                           ......... 442
International cooperation on climate change                           ...... 443
Widening the involvement in sustainable energy development                       . 445
Conclusion                                       .... 445
Making markets work better                                 .. 445
Mobilising additional investments in sustainable energy                          446
Encouraging technological innovation                             ...... 446
Supporting technological leadership and capacity building in developing countries                  446
Encouraging greater international cooperation                           ... 446
Annex. Trends in research and development funding                         ......... 447

PART V. FURTHER INFORMATION AND REFERENCE MATERIAL

Annexes                                    ....... 455
Annex A. Energy units, conversion factors, and abbreviations                       ........ 456
Annex B. Data consistency                                    457
Annex C. Energy trends                                   ..... 458
Annex D. Carbon emissions                                 ........ 467

Editorial Board                                ......... 469
Brief biographies of Editorial Board members

Glossary                                    ...... 475
Selected terminology

Contributors                                  ...... 483
World Energy Assessment Advisory Panel and peer reviewers

Index                                      ..... 489