Human Development Report 2007/2008
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Contents
Foreword v
Acknowledgements
viii
Overview
Fighting climate change: human solidarity in a divided world 1
Chapter 1 The
21st Century climate challenge 19
1.1 Climate change and human development 24
The backdrop 24
Dangerous climate change—fi ve human development ‘tipping points’ 26
1.2 Climate science and future scenarios 31
Human-induced climate change 31
Global carbon accounting—stocks, flows and sinks 32
Climate change scenarios—the known, the known unknowns, and the
uncertain 33
1.3 From global to local—measuring carbon footprints in an unequal
world 39
National and regional footprints—the
limits to convergence 40
Inequalities in carbon footprinting—some people walk more lightly than
others 43
1.4 Avoiding dangerous climate change—a sustainable emissions pathway 44
Carbon budgeting for a fragile planet 46
Scenarios for climate security—time is running out 47
The cost of a low-carbon transition—is mitigation affordable? 51
1.5 Business-as-usual—pathways to an unsustainable climate future 52
Looking back—the world since 1990 52
Looking ahead—locked on a rising trajectory 53
Drivers for increased emissions 56
1.6 Why we should act to avoid dangerous climate change 58
Climate stewardship in an
interdependent world 58
Social justice and ecological interdependence 59
The economic case for urgent action 61
Mobilizing public action 65
Conclusion 68
Appendix table 1.1: Measuring the global carbon footprint—selected
countries and regions 69
Chapter 2
Climate shocks: risk and vulnerability in an unequal world 71
2.1 Climate shocks and low human development traps 75
Climate disasters—the rising trend 75
Risk and vulnerability 78
Low human development traps 83
From climate shocks today to deprivation tomorrow—low human development
traps in operation 88
2.2 Looking ahead—old problems and new climate change risks 90
Agricultural production and food
security 90
Water stress and scarcity 94
Rising seas and exposure to extreme weather risks 98
Ecosystems and biodiversity 101
Human health and extreme weather events 105
Conclusion 106
Chapter 3 Avoiding dangerous climate
change: strategies for mitigation 109
3.1 Setting mitigation targets 112
Carbon budgeting—living within our
ecological means 113
Emission reduction targets are proliferating 113
Four targeting problems in carbon budgeting 118
Targets matter, but so do outcomes 119
3.2 Putting a price on carbon—the role of markets and governments 125
Taxation versus ‘cap-and-trade’ 125
Cap-and-trade—lessons from the EU Emission Trading Scheme 129
3.3 The critical role of regulation and government action 132
Power generation—changing the emissions
trajectory 133
The residential sector—low-cost mitigation 136
Vehicle emission standards 137
R&D and deployment of low-carbon technologies 143
3.4 The key role of international cooperation 147
An expanded role for technology
transfer and fi nance 148
Reducing deforestation 157
Conclusion 161
Chapter 4
Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international
cooperation 163
4.1 The national challenge 168
Adaptation in the developed world 168
Living with climate change—adaptation in developing countries 171
Framing national adaptation policies 172
4.2 International cooperation on climate change adaptation 184
The case for international action 185
Current adaptation fi nancing—too little, too late, too fragmented 186
Rising to the adaptation challenge—strengthening international
cooperation on adaptation 192
Conclusion 198
Notes 199
Bibliography
204